mlb24

Chad’s 2024 MLB Report

Interested in the underlying code that builds this report? Check it out on GitHub: mlb24

Contents

Team Standings

Team NPR

What is NPR?

NPR, Naive Performance Rating, is a metric I devised as a measure of team performance above/below expected. The logic behind it is this: I calculate each team’s expected runs scored in each game by taking the average of their runs scored per game and their opponent’s runs allowed per game. I then compare this expected value to the actual value of runs scored or allowed to calculate each team’s offensive and defensive NPR for each game. Here is an example.

Suppose the Cubs are playing the Cardinals. Let’s say the Cubs, on average, score 4.5 runs per game and allow 3.25 runs per game. And let’s say the Cardinals score 3.75 runs per game and allow 2.75 runs per game. We calculate the Cubs’ expected run value as the average of their runs scored per game and the Cardinals’ runs allowed per game, so (4.5 + 2.75) / 2 = 3.63. We would calculate the Cardinals’ expected run value the same way, so (3.75 + 3.25) / 2 = 3.5. We now have the Cubs’ expected run value as 3.63 and the Cardinals’ expected run value as 3.5.

Suppose that the final score of the game is a Cubs victory, 5-3. We would calculate the Cubs’ offensive NPR as their actual score minus their expected score: 5 - 3.63 = 1.37. We would calculate their defensive NPR as the Cardinals’ expected score minus their actual score: 3.5 - 3 = 0.5 (we do it in this order so positive values are good). For the Cardinals, their offensive NPR is their actual score minus their expected score, 3 - 3.5 = -0.5, and their defensive NPR is the Cubs’ expected score minus their actual score, 3.63 - 5 = -1.37. Notice how these numbers are opposite each other. So each team will have an offensive and defensive NPR for each game, which are aggregated in the plot below.

Of course, there are so many other factors that would play into a team’s true expected value, such as any injuries, starting pitchers, weather, and more. That is why I have named it Naive Performance Rating, because it assumes matchup metrics are independent of each other and does not take external factors into account. Which, of course, will lead to flaws in the metric, but is done for the sake of simplicity and interpretability.

Total NPR Rankings

Offensive NPR Rankings

Defensive NPR Rankings

Scorigami

Yesterday’s Largest Victories

  1. Atlanta Braves def. New York Mets 3-0
  2. New York Mets def. Atlanta Braves 8-7
  3. NA

Team Volatility

Most Volatile Teams
  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (6.95)
  2. Colorado Rockies (6.58)
  3. Oakland Athletics (6.57)
Most Volatile Offenses
  1. Arizona Diamondbacks (3.7)
  2. Chicago Cubs (3.4)
  3. Oakland Athletics (3.35)
Most Volatile Defenses
  1. Miami Marlins (3.44)
  2. Colorado Rockies (3.39)
  3. Pittsburgh Pirates (3.31)

Runs Scored per Game

One-Run Games

NPR and Win Percentage

Best Records in Last Ten Games

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers (8-2)
  2. Seattle Mariners (8-2)
  3. Atlanta Braves (7-3)
  4. Baltimore Orioles (7-3)
  5. Detroit Tigers (7-3)
  6. San Diego Padres (7-3)
  7. Chicago Cubs (6-4)
  8. Houston Astros (6-4)
  9. Miami Marlins (6-4)
  10. San Francisco Giants (6-4)

Early Leads

First Score Dependence

Home Field Advantage

Most Home-Dependent Teams
Better-on-the-Road Teams

Winning and Losing Streaks

Records vs. Above/Below .500 Teams

Pythagorean Wins

Runs Scored and Allowed Streaks

Longest Streaks of Scoring Three or More Runs
Longest Streaks of Allowing Fewer Than Five Runs

First Inning Score Rates

One Run vs. Multi Run Games

Rolling Ten-Game Windows

Pythagorean Rolling Windows